I. Eight Trillion Dollars Later, the Fleet Sets Sail Again
The US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on 28 February 2026. Within weeks, Brent crude surged past $118 a barrel. Iranian missiles and one-way attack drones struck targets across nine countries. The Strait of Hormuz — conduit for 21% of global petroleum trade — was partially closed in what the IEA describes as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The direct cost in the operation's first months exceeded $30 billion. Eight major oil companies booked $93 billion in profit in the quarter the war began.
This is the third Gulf War since 1991. The second, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, was projected by the Bush administration to cost $50–60 billion. The Costs of War Project at Brown University now estimates the Iraq War alone at $1.9 trillion to $3 trillion in total obligations. Combined with Afghanistan (2001–2021) and the wider post-9/11 security apparatus incl. veterans' care, the United States has committed roughly $8 trillion to Middle Eastern military operations. More than 7,000 US service members killed. Fifty-three thousand wounded. Hundreds of thousands of civilian dead across the region.
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