9 articles

Economics

Game theory, industrial policy and the numbers that move nations.

China Now Has the World's Largest Capital Stock — per Person, a Third of America's

The flow of world investment crossed in 2011; the accumulated stock crossed in 2022. Where the stock has and has not crossed — structures, equipment, housing, knowledge — says where the next two decades of building will go.

8 Nov 202611 min read

Economics

Where the World's $26 Trillion of Fixed Investment Goes

China takes 26 cents of every fixed-investment dollar on earth — and in 2024 India passed Japan as the world's third-largest site of fixed investment.

8 Nov 202611 min read

Economics

The Borrower of Last Resort: Washington Now Clears 8% of GDP in US Savings

Four sectors, one identity, 66 years: the borrowing side of America's savings has changed hands three times, and it now sits with the federal government at depths previously seen only in recessions.

6 Nov 20268 min read

Economics

When To Announce The Restructuring of the World's No. 2 Economy: China Threaded an 18-Month Window

Six years after the three red lines killed the property boom, the timing call holds up in the data. The verdict on the replacement engine takes a decade more.

5 Nov 202610 min read

Economics

AI Is Half of US Growth — Until You Net Out the Imports

Computers and software delivered 1.09 of America's 2.0 points of GDP growth in early 2026. Net of the import drag, the true contribution is far smaller. The S&P 500 is priced for the handoff.

29 Oct 202614 min read

Economics

The Perception Gap Is Back: Official Inflation 3.7%, Felt Inflation 8.6%

Official US inflation is 3.7%; the five things households buy most often are inflating at 8.6%. The perception gap is arithmetic, not delusion — and it is widening.

18 Oct 20267 min read

Economics

China Supposedly Spends Over Half Its AI Tokens on Video — but the Gunpowder Analogy Misfires

The viral quip that China uses AI for "fireworks" fails on the history, the economics and the strategy; the token data shows a commercial threshold being crossed, not a technology being wasted.

18 Oct 20266 min read

Economics

$10 Trillion in Buybacks, $500 Billion in Subsidies: The Real Economy Strikes Back

Two centuries ago, Napoleon sold wheat to Britain during a blockade rather than starve his enemy out of a war — because he wanted their gold. The same confusion between financial scores and strategic outcomes governed American outsourcing to China for 30 years.

4 Oct 202610 min read

Economics

The EV Revolution Is Repeating the Cotton Revolution, at 10x Speed

The European Commission proposed "Made in Europe" content rules in March 2026 that would tie EV incentives to 70% local content. Japan's automakers are losing share across Asia. The anxiety is structural. A 200-year-old parallel says the anxiety is also familiar — but the differences are what matter.

4 Oct 202614 min read

This week at The Quant, ⁦2026-W45⁩

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