The Crossing — Two of Them
In 2023, Mexico became the United States' largest goods trading partner — displacing Canada, not China. In the same year it overtook China as the top source of US goods imports for the first time in two decades. The two crossings are worth keeping separate: China had not been the largest total US trade partner in the years before 2023 (Canada was), but it had been the largest source of imports. Mexico now holds both slots.
The scale is a record. Mexico exported $663.7 billion of goods in 2025 (INEGI: $664.8B), up 60% from 2020 — a nearshoring surge as US firms rerouted supply chains out of China.
The Arc — From Oil to Assembly
Before NAFTA (1994), Mexico was an oil exporter: fuels were about two-thirds of merchandise exports in 1983 (falling to ~37% by 1990). NAFTA and the maquiladora system — factories importing components duty-free, assembling them, and re-exporting finished goods — reorganized Mexican trade around manufacturing. The export basket shifted from oil to autos and auto parts (roughly $211 billion in 2024 — about a third of exports, on the US ITA's vehicles-plus-parts definition), electronics, and machinery.
Discussion