France's trade deficit collapsed from a record €161.7 billion in 2022 to €69.2 billion in 2025 — a 57% improvement. The bulk of that improvement is the unwinding of the 2022 energy shock: the net energy import bill fell from €117.4 billion to €45.8 billion, a €71.6 billion decline that accounts for roughly 77% of the €92.5 billion total gain. On top of that sit two genuine but second-order contributions: record aerospace exports (€67.9 billion in 2025, an all-time high) and a record electricity trade surplus (€5.4 billion) as the nuclear fleet returned from maintenance. The catch: the 2025 deficit is still €11 billion worse than 2019's, the luxury-adjacent balances deteriorated in 2025, and manufacturing fell to 9.5% of GDP. France's trade account is healing — mostly because energy prices normalised, partly because of real export strength, and not yet back to where it started.
Mostly the Energy Bill
Trade Audit — France
TQ
The Quant
2026-W40 edition




Discussion